This Weekly Update reveals the US10YR’s latest market structure and pattern development using custom monowave charts and orthodox NEoWave logic. I track patterns in the stock and crypto charts so you can make informed decisions about future market direction.
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2.5 Yearly Chart
In 1985, the major trend changed to DOWN and it is still down. This means the largest, fastest moves should be with the downward blue trend waves A, C and E.
Major Trend (blue waves A, C, E)= DOWN
Minor Trend (green waves (a), (c), (e))= UP
The market appears to be forming a Neutral Triangle where wave-C is the longest wave.
In a Neutral Triangle it is common for the market to return to the area between the dashed lines. We can be on the lookout for this for wave-E although it is not required but I am expecting lower rates in the future after wave-D has completed.
6-Monthly Chart
Tracking Wave-D:
2 scenarios exist and we must be ready for either.
Scenario 1: as marked on the chart
Scenario 2: wave-D started at the major low and completed at the high where I have wave-a marked and we are currently tracking wave-E.
A sharp move above or below the consolidation (2023-2026) will reveal which scenario is accurate. I am sticking with the chart until proven otherwise.
The price/time box is says that wave-D is nearing completion. My expectation is that wave-E will bring this market back to 3% or lower. As stated above in the 2.5 Yearly comments wave-E could easily come back to the 1-2% range but is not required to.
Monthly Chart
Wave-D closer look. The expectation is that we need to close out this ABC pattern with another push up.
Bottom Line
The 10YR appears to be in Wave-D of a correction that started in 1985. Wave-D should be slower and more subdivided than Wave-C and it is so I am still expecting a sharp move down for Wave-E in the future (after we have confirmed that wave-D is complete).